One of the most frustrating experiences is to draft a paper expressing your thoughts, and have it just about finished...and then have an unwanted electronic interruption that causes your work product to be “lost in hyperspace.” Well, that happened to me with a draft of this post this afternoon. Hope it doesn’t happen again. Too painful. But I will try to recreate this once lost post.
Several years ago, my wife and I drove across Tennessee and Kentucky to visit friends from years gone by. We stopped in a little town very near the border and entered a country store to browse. I gravitated to a corner that had used books for sale, and my eyes came to rest on a book about Afghanistan. It was entitled “In Afghanistan” and subtitled “Two Hundred Years of British, Russian and American Occupation,” and written by a veteran foreign correspondent for the BBC, David Loyn. When we went to pay for the book, the store owner gently shared a story.
His nephew, who grew up in the town, was an Air Force Lieutenant Colonel deployed to Afghanistan, and working on a civil affairs project to renovate dilapidated schools. He wrote his father soon after arrival in country, explaining what he was doing, and reassuring his dad that his job was not anywhere near the hostilities. Two days later, he was notified that his son had been killed. As the son was at his desk, his Afghan military partner silently approached him from the rear and shot him in the back of his head. Welcome to Afghanistan. This story really touched me, and I took it home along with the book.
History shows that no foreign power has ever achieved its objectives to control, pacify or significantly influence the collection of different tribes and ethnic groups that call Afghanistan home. Never mind Alexander the Great over two thousand years ago. The British and Russians competed in the region as part of the 19th Century “Great Game.” Three separate Anglo-Afghan Wars all turned out badly for the British. The Soviets invaded in 1979 and thanks to our covert provision of Stinger missiles to the resistance forces, the Soviets suffered huge losses of helicopters and crews, and left the country a demoralized force. The popular protests in the Soviet Union and sense of mission failure were one of the triggers that eventually led to the demise of that powerful country. Remember how being defeated by the Japanese early in the twentieth century set in motion a chain of events that led to the Bolshevik Revolution. Being perceived as weak is not good for Russian leaders.
I remember thinking to myself, how could the Soviets have been so stupid? Hadn’t they read the history of the country they tried to tame? And then I watched with disbelief as my own country started its own incursion into Afghanistan after the tragic attacks of 9/11. I understood the imperative to find and neutralize Osama Bin Laden and all who planned the 9/11 attacks. But who would have thought we would stay there for almost two decades, and try to employ our “nation building” skills to help make Afghanistan more stable, a bit democratic, and less likely to ever again be a threat to my country.
Osama met his fate in Pakistan, a neighboring nation whose intelligence services have historically exercised unhelpful influences upon Afghanistan. Pakistan is more developed than Afghanistan, but is a very unstable nuclear power. Radical Islamists hold powerful sway over domestic political leaders.
Why then are we still there? Leaving is harder than one might expect. We don’t want to look like the departing Soviets. We don’t want to deal with the very real anger of families who have either lost loved ones or suffered from disabling injuries while serving their country in Afghanistan...some of whom are going to feel like they suffered in vain. We don’t want to sit back and watch helplessly while all the reforms we have funded, like education of girls and bringing many women into more independent roles in society, are violently reversed.
There are other forces that complicate ending our presence. Eisenhower warned the American people about the “military industrial complex” as he left the White House. Defense contractors have a strong and vested interest in keeping our troops deployed, not just outfitted with the best weapons and protective gear, but logistically supported with food services, and a myriad of necessary support services. And deployments mean higher budgets for our military, more promotions and the ability to test new weapons systems.
But the biggest problem is the ignorance of most Americans as to the history and culture of Afghanistan. Our people need to realize that nothing we can do will stabilize the country or bring about political union. On top of that, we need to understand the extreme corruption that takes much of the punch out of our economic aid. If we ever bothered to study the history, we would realize that a major problem is a culture that justifies treachery when dealing with “foreign invaders.” As our British friends often learned the hard way, the political leadership would sign an agreement without any intention of complying with its terms. So why do we think that a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban would be honored? Beats me.
Most Americans do not realize that if you envision a large circle, divided by 360 degrees, there is barely a one or two degree difference between the government we are propping up and the Taliban. Many soldiers in the Afghan army change uniforms at night and man Taliban outposts.
We are smack dab in the middle of what, but for our presence, would be an even hotter civil war on a much broader scale. Many Taliban are the same people (or their sons) we supported during the Soviet occupation.
Our country has given so much of its blood and treasure to try to stabilize a country that will never, on this side of eternity, have peace. Moreover, while many of its people share endearing qualities like hospitality and friendliness, many of our values are not theirs. Religious freedom does not exist there. To this very day, any Afghan who decides to leave Islam and live as a Christian is subject to the death penalty, much the same as Iran. When such a situation gains public attention, all hell breaks loose. The only way such a convert can survive is to be declared insane and sponsored by a western country as a refugee. And to make that happen is a really big deal, given strong public pressure to convict and sentence the person who dared to exercise freedom of religion.
There is another story about which most Americans know nothing. In the US Embassy in Kabul is a small team of military and civilian experts called the “Personnel Recovery Team.” At any given time, a significant number of Americans (some military, most civilians) are held hostage by criminal groups who seek to profit from their captives. Sometimes, it is just money they seek. In other cases, they will “trade” their captives to political groups who will seek to extract concessions for the release of the hostages. Since the US policy is not to pay ransom, many of these cases turn out badly. I know this from deeply personal experience on the ground.
When President Trump came into office, his instincts were for once correct. “Let’s get out of Afghanistan,” he declared. And yet we are still there. Russian military intelligence is reportedly paying bounties to the Taliban to kill American soldiers. How dare they? But Putin is a student of history. He remembers how Charlie Wilson and our CIA gave shoulder fired Stinger missiles to the Taliban’s predecessors, fundamentally changing the air supremacy the Soviets had, causing the death of countless Soviet military personnel and precipitating their shameful retreat. Do you think the Russians will do all they can to keep us from leaving? You bet they will.
Our civilian leaders need to tell the Afghan political leadership that we are withdrawing our forces. We have invested more than enough to put them in a position to govern with the support of their people. And we need to tell the Taliban that any further attacks on our redeploying forces will be met with an immediate and disproportionate military response, one from the air that they will never forget. Finally, we should provide a pathway for a limited number of vetted Afghan nationals who have faithfully served our country’s military forces to move with their immediate families to the United States to resettle.
One of the basic requirements for a democratic form of government to survive is an educated electorate. One that understands history. One that takes an active interest in how government uses military power both at home and abroad. I fear we are sorely deficient in that category. Unfortunately, we have a Commander in Chief who shuns expert opinion and has no clue about history. Thanks for listening.
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