In dealing with the Russian Federation and its unstable leader, Americans should consider several important dynamics that are always in play.
Just as the Soviet Union consisted of fifteen very diverse subsidiary republics when it suddenly disintegrated in 1991, today’s Russian Federation consists of eighty-five subsidiary political bodies with varying degrees of autonomy—and twenty-two separate republics. There is an inherent instability in this construct, which involves dozens of separate ethnic groups and many republics which are majority Muslim, and which have interests that are very different from those of Moscow and St Petersburg. It is not hard to envision a repeat of the breaking up of the Soviet Union 30 years ago.
Ever since the Great Game, the historical practice of the Russian government has been to advance its military forces until it meets strong resistance, and then look for a way out. Japan’s humiliating defeat of Russia in the early years of the twentieth century sowed the seeds for the Bolshevik Revolution. We all remember the Russian exit from Afghanistan after Stinger missiles cleared the skies of Russian attack helicopters and exponentially increased the number of Russian combatants whose return to Russia was in body bags.
Putin is desperate and talking as if the economic sanctions imposed against his country are effectively a declaration of war. He threatens a global nuclear war. But he knows that he and his country will be obliterated in the first days of such a nuclear war. He is bluffing.
What his forces are doing in Ukraine constitutes much more than a military invasion. They have committed documented war crimes, violations of international humanitarian law for which every country has jurisdiction to prosecute and intervene. Deliberate bombing of civilian apartment compounds, hospitals and nuclear energy facilities goes way beyond conventional application of military force against military targets and facilities that support continued military resistance. It has all played out on television, for the world (except the isolated Russians) to see, in living color.
This is a critical moment for the free world. If Putin refuses to stop his unlawful destruction of Ukraine, the free world should stop him by taking control of the skies over Ukraine, destroying the convoys of Russian forces and weapons systems that are central to their battle plan, and sending the Russian leaders into panic mode. The US and other western nuclear powers should issue a declaration that any Russian use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons will result in massive retaliation that will consign Russia to the scrap heap of history.
The Russian bear keeps pushing and moving forward until it faces severe opposition, at which point it makes a tactical retreat. It does not matter that Ukraine is not a NATO member. It is a sovereign country in the world order that the United Nations is obligated to protect against unprovoked aggression. Russia should be expelled from the United Nations for activities in direct contravention of the UN Charter.
Most Russian military forces are young conscripts who are poorly trained, bullied by superiors, and lacking in military discipline and esprit de corps. Alcoholism is rampant in their forces. They are no match for the brave Ukrainians and certainly no match for the professional soldiers and airmen of the US armed forces. We do not need “boots on the ground” to stop Putin. We only need a stiff backbone and a very firm resolve. There is still time.
Comments