Wisdom for US Policy Makers on Ukraine
It has been over a year since the Russian Federation began its “special military operation” in the Ukraine. The US and its NATO allies and other democratic countries have provided military and humanitarian support. The Russian side has used contractor forces and even convicted criminals as its foot soldiers in this horrific war.
Indiscriminate bombing of civilian residences, hospitals and museums, and even a nuclear power plant have been tactics in an effort to break the collective will of the Ukrainian people, all to no avail. We have not seen such bravery and sacrifice in recent memory.
And now the Chinese are starting to provide lethal assistance to the Russians, in what has evolved into a proxy war between the western democracies and authoritarian regimes like China, Iran, North Korea and of course Russia.
How shall we resolve this conflict decisively? Here’s my formula. Start using US forces to destroy the military platforms from which the shelling is coming, whether missile launch sites, mobile missile batteries, surface ships, submarines or aircraft. Tell the Russians that enough is enough. What they are doing in the way of systematic destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian residences, including hospitals, is a universal crime under international law, one with which any nation has the right to intervene and neutralize the destructive forces.
Let’s be honest about the Russians. They are a third-rate military power, with largely undisciplined military forces, and as a federation with almost ninety semiautonomous republics, they are just as fragile as was the old Soviet Union with its fifteen republics. They could splinter and break apart in an instant, just as the Soviet Union did in August of 1991. All they have to rattle is their nuclear sword. But they know that if they ever used nuclear weapons against the US or its allies, or in this context, in a proxy war involving the US and its allies, we would respond with overwhelming force in what would be the end of Putin and the Russian Federation as we know it.
So please, stop tip toeing around Putin. Use available US force to end this war. And when it is over, bring Putin before the world court and demand that the Russian Federation fund the rebuilding of Ukraine. Once Putin loses, his government will fall like Humpty Dumpty, and there will be a window of opportunity for more moderate and more democratic forces to fill the vacuum.
We need to remember that Crimea was a major Soviet naval base, its gateway to the Black Sea and beyond. It was part of the Russian component of the USSR until they “gave” it to the Ukrainian USSR component in the spirit of brotherly love and historical ties dating back centuries. So, to look at it as if it were always sovereign Ukrainian soil is to gross oversimplification.
Any post-war settlement needs to involve a long term lease for Russian forces to use designated areas of the Crimean naval base structure. But the area itself needs to be returned to the Ukrainians. As soon as the Russians seized the Crimean Peninsula, they closed churches and instituted Soviet style restrictions on individual freedom.
The Russia of today is a criminal enterprise, like a Mafia type entity, corrupt from top to bottom. Yes, corruption is a problem in all countries, I get it. But when it pervades all sectors of a country, and controls well over 80% of the economy, it is a criminal enterprise clothed in national garb. We need to recognize that for the reality that it is.
Here is roadmap for US national security policy makers.
First, after consultation with NATO leadership, issue a formal declaration that clearly identifies the Russian state as having systematically engaged in activities that international law regards as universal crimes for which any nation has the right to intervene and prosecute, including the indiscriminate or intentional bombing of civilian structures having nothing to do with legitimate military objectives, torture and murder of prisoners, and the forced removal to Russian soil of thousands of children from occupied areas.
Second, require the immediate cessation of all such illegal activities and the prompt removal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Make it crystal clear that unless these conditions are met, US forces will neutralize all forces that Russia is employing to carry out these unlawful activities.
Third, make it clear that if Russia chooses to employ nuclear weapons of any kind, anywhere touching or impacting this conflict, that the US will respond massively in kind.
Fourth, pledge US assistance in negotiating a peace accord that creates a fifty kilometer wide demilitarized (buffer) zone along Russia’s border with the Ukraine and with all NATO nations that share a border with Russia, where no military forces or structures will be permitted. Require that Russia recognizes the sovereignty of all states along this buffer zone and reaffirms its commitment to the non-aggression principles of the United Nations Charter.
Finally, convene an international conference on the rebuilding of Ukraine, and require Russia to contribute most of the overall costs.
We have seen enough of the status quo. It will never end. More bombs and missiles rain down on civilian structures each new day. Let’s get serious. Putin is in a very precarious position, almost like the Czar when Japan defeated Russia in the war at the beginning of the 20th century. Strike now, and hard!
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